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Daily Market Insight: 25 April 2025

25 เม.ย. 2568
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 33.385-33.42 this morning supportive level at 33.30 resistance level at 33.50
  • SET Index: 1,146.9 (-0.6%), 24 Apr 2025
  • S&P 500 Index: 5,484.8 (+2.0%), 24 Apr 2025
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.948 (+4.52 bps), 24 Apr 2025
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.32 (-8.0 bps), 24 Apr 2025

 

  • Fed’s Hammack hints June rate cut still on the table
  • US durable goods orders soar on aircraft bookings in March
  • Tokyo CPI inflation surges to 2-year high in April
  • Beijing rejects trade talks, demands US remove tariffs first
  • Thai exports jumped in March on pre-tariff front-loading
  • US dollar weakens, partly due to dovish comments from the Fed

 

Fed’s Hammack hints June rate cut still on the table

Cleveland Fed President Hammack said uncertainty is weighing on business planning and it's too soon to adjust rates in May. However, a June move is possible if economic data offers more clarity.

 

US durable goods orders soar on aircraft bookings in March

Durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March, well above the 2.0% forecast, with defense-excluded orders up 10.4%. However, the gains were driven by a spike in aircraft orders. Excluding aircraft, core durable goods were flat, and business investment indicators rose just 0.1%, missing expectations.

 

Tokyo CPI inflation surges to 2-year high in April

Tokyo’s headline CPI accelerated to 3.5% in April, up from 2.9% in March. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 3.4% year-over-year, surpassing the 3.2% median forecast. The uptick was driven by a combination of last year’s school fee cuts and rising food and energy prices. Prices for non-fresh food items jumped 6.4%, with rice prices surging 93.8%, sparking public concern.

 

Beijing rejects trade talks, demands US remove tariffs first

China is refusing to engage in trade talks unless the U.S. first lifts all unilateral tariffs. Beijing insists that any negotiations must be preceded by clear signs of goodwill, including greater respect and serious consideration of its concerns. Meanwhile, China is expected to introduce new policy measures to cushion its economy from the effects of the tariffs, with potential stimulus announcements anticipated as early as this week.

 

Thai exports jumped in March on pre-tariff front-loading

Thailand’s exports surged 17.8% year-on-year in March, beating the 13.5% forecast and reaching a record-high monthly value of US$29.5 billion. The surge was mainly due to a front-loading of shipments ahead of expected tariffs. Export growth was led by industrial goods, especially electronics, while agricultural and agro-industrial exports declined. Imports also rebounded, rising 10.2% YoY. As a result, the trade surplus narrowed to US$0.97 billion—below the US$1.2 billion expected and down from US$1.99 billion in February.

 

US dollar weakens, partly due to dovish comments from the Fed

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.948, +4.52 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.946, +4.78 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.32, -8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.53, moving in a range of 33.385 – 33.42 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.30 – 33.50 today. The dollar came under pressure amid broad risk-on sentiment, with the index weighed down by mixed economic data and dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Fed Hammack. The euro gained on dollar weakness, climbing close to the 1.1400 level, further supported by stronger-than-expected German IFO data. The Japanese yen firmed against the dollar, though its gains were limited as improved risk appetite reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC